What seat numbers in Bihar conceal: Vote share leader RJD led JD(U) in a sharpest decline.

Although the NDA won 31 of the 40 seats in Bihar, it may have done better there than in Uttar Pradesh, but its share of the vote and the margin of victory of its candidates have declined dramatically.

Furthermore, even though the JD(U) outperformed the BJP in Bihar, losing only four of its sixteen seats to the BJP's five out of seventeen, and so emerging as a kingmaker at the center, their vote share has decreased more than the BJP's.

The RJD, on the other hand, has grown its vote share by more than 6% from 2019 to 2020, while only winning three seats in spite of a fierce campaign by former deputy chief minister Tejashwi Yadav.

These patterns might portend future developments in the Bihar Assembly elections in 2025, where the JD(U)'s increasing significance within the NDA may be measured against its popular support. Voices from the ground, irrespective of caste, indicate that Nitish's popularity in the state has declined, and voters may seek for other options in 2025.

The alliance of the BJP, JD(U), and LJP secured 25 seats in 2019 by a margin of more than 2 lakh votes. In 13 of these, the NDA prevailed by a margin of at least 3 lakh votes. They won by more than two lakh votes in just two seats this year: Araria and Muzaffarpur.

The election in Saran had the narrowest victory margin, with Rajiv Pratap Rudy of the BJP defeating Rohini Acharya, the daughter of Lalu Prasad, by just over 13,600 votes. The largest margin of victory was observed in Muzaffarpur, where Raj Bhushan Chaudhary of the BJP defeated Ajay Nishad of the Congress by about 2.35 lakh votes.

The parties' vote shares indicated the notable decline in margins. With a vote percentage of 20.5%, the BJP had a 3.5% decrease from 2019. This time, the JD(U) had a decrease of 3.75%, or roughly 18.52% of the vote share.

The LJP experienced a modest decline in vote share from 8% in 2019 to 6.5% currently; the party ran for one fewer seat but won all five of its constituencies.

Watch This: Manoj Jha of RJD says, "We are definitely a dominant force." We will benefit from Tejashwi's job pitch in Assembly as well.

Conversely, the RJD, which received about 15.7% of the vote in 2019, increased its portion of the vote to 22.14%, making it the only party in Bihar with the highest vote share. It also gained four seats from zero. Indeed, the vote of the RJD

The share improvement was nearly identical to the total drop that the JD(U) and BJP experienced.

The Congress, which ran a joint campaign with the RJD in 2019, also saw a little increase in its vote share, going from 7.9% to 9.2%.

"The BJP and JD(U) strike rates differ, however this does not imply that the two parties are less popular in the state. Compared to the JD(U), we still command a considerably bigger vote share. Indeed, we lost a few seats as a result of our poor candidate selection, according to a top BJP official in the state.

However, a JD(U) representative argued that the outcomes demonstrated the continued popularity of the Nitish government's programs for the underprivileged and women. "This victory also demonstrated that Nitish Kumar in the NDA cannot be disregarded. Political allegiances have changed since 2020, and the 2025 polls are still a ways off," the leader stated.

The JD(U) lost almost 70 seats in the 2015 Assembly elections, down to 43 seats in 2020. This left it considerably behind the BJP and RJD, which emerged as the top party following the election. At the time, JD(U) officials attributed it to "sabotage" coming from within the NDA, as the LJP—which ran its own candidates in Bihar—opposed every JD(U) candidate with one of its nominees.